Breaking it Down: Console Evolution

I am likely somewhat biased, but I thought the E3 Xbox briefing was well done. Not only was there a nice mix of hardware and software announcements (with launch dates!), but more clarity was provided on the vision and roadmap for console hardware.

But wait, that’s been the focal point of much hand-wringing and teeth gnashing. Here’s one from Engadget, speculating that Xbox One sales will dry up, because something better will appear next year.

At the macro level, here are the critical take-aways on where the industry is headed:

  1. Expect console hardware to iterate more rapidly.
  2. Expect great developers that make great games to tune for the few “click-stops” of consoles and their respective capabilities, not unlike supporting N and N-1 console generations or cross-platforms, today.
    1. Consoles and PCs are becoming more and more alike, so assets and content should be sharable, but with an extra layer of closer-to-metal API access and specific settings to be tuned for consoles.
    2. Over time, the top-of-line AAA games will raise the min-bar, but expect studios to support N, N-1 and possibly N-2 iterations, to hit the experience-install base sweet spot.
  3. And, like nearly all other industries (TVs, phones, even your toothbrush and home furnishings), potential customers will have a cost-benefit trade-off to make. A novel concept.

For the Xbox family, specifically, the One S is the natural cost and form-factor reduction version of the original One. This time, the deal has been sweetened with additional functionality and hardware (UHD Blu-Ray). The change for next year is that both the One S and Project Scorpio will exist, side-by-side, and unlike compatibility breaks of some previous generations, there won’t be one here.

Some may postpone purchases until next year, for Scorpio, but given the S is incremental and a year earlier than the typical mid-cycle refresh, I doubt there will be significant overall sales cannibalization due to the Scorpio announcement. Instead, the S maintains the new entry-$299 price-point and entices new users with a smaller, nicer-looking console, riding the wave of 4K marketing. There isn’t remotely close to 100% TAM overlap, as some allude to, nor the even more outlandish claim that someone eying an Xbox will now suddenly buy a PS4. Because, why?

Change is challenging for most to accept. So while one might question why console gaming is the anomoly in consumer electronics (recall all those bemoaning that smartphone GPUs were more capable then previous-generation consoles), the fact that it’s about to change is the most anxiety-inducing part.

(Th)Air and Back Again – A MacBook’s Tale

What 13″ laptop is 1.1″ thick and weighs 5lbs?

An Apple MacBook, from 2008.

Why is that relevant? To put the MacBook Air into context. When the MacBook Air was released in 2008, its svelte 3/4″ “thinness” and 3lbs was a revelation, showing what mobile productivity could feel like. Today, nearly every consumer 13.3″ notebook >$500 is 3/4″ thick and less than 3.5lbs, touchscreen included. Even the MacBook Pro, which is a distinctly more capable machine, than the Air, is hardly thicker at all and only 0.5lbs heavier.

Meanwhile, the new 12″ (retina) MacBook is 25% thinner and 1/5 lighter than an 11.6″ MacBook Air and provides 12.5% more screen area (not to mention a drastically increased resolution). In comparison, the new MacBook is once more a mobility revelation. Importantly, the form factor size and weight reductions did not come at the expense of solidity, much performance (within 15% of a latest generation MacBook Air) or battery life. I played around with a co-worker’s MacBook, recently, and it is mind-boggling object to behold.

And it’s because of this progress that I believe we will soon see the MacBook Air, as we know it today, go into retirement. I’m guessing two versions of an “all new” MacBook will take its place, one with the same 12″ size as the current MacBook, and another in the 13.5-14″ range and 1/3 pound heavier, to give it some distinction from its smaller counterpart. Similar to the original announcement, the release should happen in late Q1, in time to address the college graduation season and continue to be fresh, going into back-to-school.

Skylake-Y seems like a shoe-in, with its performance profile very similar to Broadwell-U, in all but the most intensive, long-running operations, where the limited thermal headroom will crimp performance. In order to hit the psychologically and advertising-important “starting at $999″, I think the smaller, 12″ version will come with 8GB RAM and 128GB storage. The larger ~14” version likely starts at $1299, with an upgraded processor and 256GB storage.

The odd-duck MacBook Pro with optical drive notwithstanding, Apple hasn’t long carried 3 notebook line-ups for long, so unless one believes instead the new MacBook or the MacBook Pro line will disappear, it’s only natural that the in-between MacBook Air merges into the more distinctive option, shortly. It’ll also help with the naming, back to good old Pro and non-Pro.

Surface Book/Pro 4 Sleep Battery Drain (Skylake IGP edition)

If you have a Surface Pro 4 or a Surface Book, chances are, you’re experiencing pretty awful sleep (Connected Standby in particular) battery drain. This power state is designed to enable connectivity and near-instantaneous wakes, while consuming extremely little power think 10 days of battery life, in this state).

In order for this state (Intel calls the system state S0ix, or an active-idle state) to work, a combination of operating system, system firmware, and device drivers need to all act appropriately. The Intel integrated graphics devices appears to be a common cause of battery drain in sleep for Skylake-based systems. Sleep study reports (you can view them by running “powercfg sleepstudy” from an elevated command prompt) indicate the graphics device is active on the order of 15-17% of the time, while in sleep, causing 1W+ drain.

However, an updated Intel graphics driver, released December 22, 2015, version 15.40.14.64.4352, has improved that somewhat for my Surface Pro 4. Check it out – can you guess when I installed the driver?

sp4_sleepstudy

Power draw is still not where I’d like to see it (from my work on various SoC platforms, within Windows, I’d expect these Core-based systems to consume in the range of 100-150mW, on average), but it’s still a 40-50% improvement from where it was. This high drain is also likely why the Surface team implemented a rather short doze-to-hibernate timeout of 2 hours. It means I’m frequently resuming the device from hibernate (~12 seconds) instead of from Standby (<1 second).

The driver is currently only for 6th generation (Skylake) Core graphics and with a Surface, you’ll need to install it manually via Device Manager (great installation guide, at Windows Central), until Microsoft pushes it to this particular device ID via Windows Update. It seems to work just fine, though. If you’re seeing similar (better) results, let me know!

The Last March of the PC

With the holiday shopping season upon us, in earnest, my attention is drawn to the hordes of <$400 laptops on the market. A couple years ago, within Windows, we were cringing at the onslaught of Chromebooks, to which we had no better answer than the continued race of the behemoth desktop-replacement laptops to match at least on price. Think driving the price of a last generation Toshiba C55 down to $249.

Two years on, the Windows value-entry ecosystem is in a much more competitive place. In large part, this has been triggered by licensing changes, designed to stem share loss at the low-end, not dissimilar in concept to the Windows “Starter Edition” driving Linux-based netbooks from the market. Well, the differences are myriad; Windows with Bing is not a limited OS, like Starter was, and performance, even at the low end of the laptop market, is finally sufficient, for typical consumer use.

But, I wonder what this is accomplishing. We’re all just fighting for an ever shrinking pie that is the PC market – and I draw the circle around what constitutes the “PC” market liberally, including OS X and Chrome OS. PC penetration in most regions of the world has peaked. And because even the lowest options on the PC totem pole are increasingly “good enough” for typical use, the upgrade cycle has lengthened. There are literally over half a billion PCs, in use, over 4 years old. It’s not clear there are any further “killer apps” in the PC sphere that will drive a significant portion to upgrade. Likely not, with the technology ecosystem’s focus elsewhere.

So, yes, Windows will continue to drive new features into the PC, to limit the decline of the market. Windows Hello is magical (similarly, ask iPhone users if they’re willing to forego their fingerprint readers), but it’s still making its way to mass market. Look at the shelves this holiday, and you’ll find Windows Hello is still few and far between, mostly on >$700 devices. It will come down, but it’s not a Hail Mary that rejuvenates the entire market. That said, Hello and other features are part of a holding pattern, while “the next thing” is cultivated (cloud? services? “IoT”?).

In the meantime, enjoy what is likely to be a last generational hurrah for PC innovation. We will drive it, because we need it to support the privilege of being able to invest elsewhere. Budget PCs will get much better and a more definitive premium tranche, carved out by Apple, and increasingly joined by Surface, will be sustained.

Microsoft 10 Devices Event

HoloLens

Band 2

Lumia 950/XL

Surface Pro 4

Surface Book

110 million Windows 10  devices

All that, plus swagger. For the first time, in a very long time, Microsoft showed some serious swagger, and boy, do we have a portfolio of aspirational products  to lead the way through the current and future frontiers of computing technology.

The Verge put together a great summary video of this morning’s announcement. Check it out here. If you want to experience the entire 1:47, it’s over at Microsoft.com.

There is deep, burning desire across the Internet nerdom for many of the products shown today. It’s been 3 years in the making, from the first Surface experiments to an ever-more complete portfolio of Windows devices, today. This is one critical piece of Satya’s goal to move people from using Windows to choosing Windows to loving Windows. It’s the beginning of what the Xbox has, a fanbase of users, who are deeply satisfied and recommend the products, without prompting.

I have no illusions of sudden grandeur or sentiment shift. I am well aware products need to crush it, many times in a row, before that goodwill is established and users start trusting the family of products (enough to pre-order, sight unseen, like others!). We’re just about there with the Surface lineup. Lumia is taking the first step in a multi-step journey. It’s also going to take a few iterations of purposeful and flawless execution to build the same position. And HoloLens, that’s even more nascent, but we know where we want to be and will drive relentlessly to deliver the vision, in its entirety.

I am excited about the products, awfully proud to be a part of the groups delivering them, and look forward to taking all these next steps.